New York Met Jacob DeGrom

 

PHILADELPHIA, PA — The pop of Bryce Harper's bat cracking into a Robert Suarez fastball last October is still resounding along the laurels and hallows of Pattison and Broad. But an autumn of legend has passed into echoes and wraiths with the long winter, and the defending National League champion Phillies are roaring into the breach of a new season once more.

RELIVE THE MAGIC: Bryce Harper's Shot Heard Round The World

It was not a quiet offseason for the Phillies. John Middleton upped the ante from his 2009 "I want my (expletive) trophy back," and established himself as this generation's Steinbrenner when he told the Inquirer in February that he wants the Phillies to be "the greatest franchise in the history of baseball."

Needless to say, a World Series parade in November is the goal. Opening Day for the Phillies is Thursday, March 30 in Arlington, Texas at 4:05 p.m.

Who they've added

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To the team that was two wins away from a title, Middleton and President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski added superstar Trea Turner, widely considered the best shortstop in the sport. He's locked up for 11 years on a $300 million deal, making him a part of a large position player core that will call South Philly home for at least the next three years. He's lit the world on fire since his signing.

They also added starting pitcher Taijuan Walker on a four-year, $72 million contract. He was outstanding for the rival New York Mets in 2022, pitching to a 3.49 ERA over 157.1 innings with 132 strikeouts. He'll slot in just behind co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, and alongside Ranger Suarez, in the middle of a potent Philly starting four.

A series of trades and signings to bolser the bullpen makes this, once again, the most well-rounded Phillies team since the 2011 days of Howard, Hamels, Rollins, and Utley lore. Gregory Soto, Matt Strahm, and Craig Kimbrel are the new names.

Who they've lost

The two most crushing losses for the Phillies are players that aren't really gone. Bryce Harper will start the season on the injured list after undergoing surgery on a UCL tear in his elbow in the winter. There's optimism he could be back as early as late May.

Longtime first baseman Rhys Hoskins tore his ACL during a spring training game last week. He'll be shelved for at least 7 months. But if the Phillies make another deep postseason run in late October, there's a possibility he could help out.

Meanwhile, Turner and Walker are huge improvements over departed players who were strengths for the Phillies last year. Veteran second baseman Jean Segura was not resigned, and headed to the Miami Marlins. Homegrown starting pitcher turned postseason relief weapon Zach Eflin, meanwhile, was signed by the Tampa Bay Rays, in that club's largest free agent deal ever.

From the World Series roster, they traded young utilitymen Nick Maton and Matt Vierling to land Soto. They also declined to resign veteran relievers Brad Hand, Corey Knebel, and David Robertson, but injuries largely limited the impact of that group to begin with.

Predictions

The Phillies are in the best division in baseball. The Mets, Braves, and Phillies are in the same upper echelon tier of teams, along with the Houston Astros, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, and Los Angeles Dodgers, that would view this season as a disappointment if they don't win the World Series.

Knowing that, the Phillies could have an excellent season, win 95 games or more, and still finish third in the NL East, with the same Wild Card position as a year ago.

That won't be the case in 2023. The Phillies have made huge improvements to their roster and clubhouse, and a full season with Rob Thomson at the helm will make a difference. They'll get a huge midseason boost with the return of Harper, and they'll get another boost when top prospect Andrew Painter, a candidate to make the Opening Day roster before he was held back by injuries, wins Rookie of the Year despite a late debut. With Middleton's committment and Dombrowski's shrewdness, the Phillies will be further aided by the trade deadline acquisition of resurgent star Joey Gallo from the Minnesota Twins.

But the difference maker will be Alec Bohm, who builds on a promising spring with a breakout season of 30 home runs, earning him MVP votes alongside Turner and JT Realmuto.

The Braves will win the division with another 100-win season, but the Phillies will be a close second with 98 wins. They'll return to the World Series in a rematch of 2009, defeating the Yankees this time, 4-1.

World Series odds, projections, and beyond

Once again, the Phillies are being largely overlooked by the projection models that flubbed and flubbed and flubbed again in predicting their losses in three consecutive postseason series last fall.

Still, most of the popular statistical models have the Phillies in third place in the NL East.

Fangraphs, somehow, has the Phils finishing three games worse than 2022, at 84-78, just good enough to tie for the final Wild Card spot with the Brewers, and playing a rematch against the Central-winning Cardinals in the first round of the playoffs. It has the Braves winning the division with 92 wins, and the Mets coming in second with 89. It's a strange projection indeed, considering all three teams are better than a year ago, but they're all forecasted to notably regress. This projection should be taken with a grain of salt, as Fangraphs very rarely accurately predicts overall win totals.

The other most widely referenced model is Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA, which also has the Phillies in third, but winning 89 games, trailing the 94-win Mets and the 91-win Braves. The Phillies would again be the third Wild Card in this projection, playing the Central-winning Brewers in the opening round.

Caesar's Sportsbook has the Phillies at +1400 odds to win the World Series, the 8th best in baseball. The defending champion Astros are number one at +400, though projection models have the New York Yankees as the best team in baseball.

Opening Day

The Phillies will kick off the season against the Texas Rangers, an up and coming squad that spent big for the second offseason in a row and is coming into 2023 with enormous expectations. The home crowd will not be quiet, but the Phillies have some recent experience playing against hostile crowds in high stakes environments in Texas.

And as loud as the Rangers new state of the art Globe Life Field may be, it's very likely silent bats will suffuse the sound and the fury.

Two of best pitchers in the world will be on the mound. Aaron Nola will get the start for the Phillies, the sixth year in a row they've handed the ball to their erstwhile co-ace on day one. He'll battle an old NL East nemesis, longtime New York Met Jacob DeGrom, who signed a five-year deal with Texas over the winter. DeGrom is widely considered the greatest among this generation's crop of elite pitchers when healthy, but he's had durability issues for years, and a weak finish to 2022 has opponents hoping he's vulnerable.

Home opener

The Phils will be back at the Bank for the first time since Game 5 of the World Series when they host the Cincinnati Reds on April 6 at 3:05 p.m. Tickets are on sale now.

Projected lineup

The opening day lineup could take one of multiple iterations, but the below configuration allows the team to keep hot bat Edmundo Sosa in the starting lineup, with a much stronger glove than Bohm's at third.

1. SS Trea Turner
2. LF Kyle Schwarber
3. C JT Realmuto
4. RF Nick Castellanos
5. DH Alec Bohm
6. 1B Darick Hall
7. 2B Bryson Stott
8. CF Brandon Marsh
9. 3B Edmundo Sosa

Rule changes for the 2023 season

Baseball will be a bit different in 2023. The pitch clock will be 15 seconds with no runners on base, and 20 seconds with runners on base. Officials hope this makes the game move faster, though early outcomes show only a marginal difference.

The bases themselves will also be larger, which could lead to increased stolen base totals in 2023.